How Beacon Works
Our orderbook-first methodology for reading market pressure in prediction markets.
Overview
In US-only mode, the Beacon score currently uses one core signal:
The Wall
Orderbook liquidity analysis using logit-weighted depth calculations.
The Wall
The Wall analyzes orderbook depth to understand where liquidity is positioned. Unlike simple depth calculations, we use logit-based weighting to properly handle prediction market probability space.
Why Logit Weighting?
In prediction markets, a 4c move at 5% is approximately 10x more significant than a 4c move at 50%. Standard linear analysis misses this - logit transformation properly captures it.
Orders near the midpoint receive higher weights, while orders at extreme prices (near 0c or 100c) are de-weighted. This focuses on liquidity that matters for price discovery.
Interpretation: More weighted bid depth (buying YES) relative to ask depth (selling YES) indicates bullish positioning.
Sharp Money (Paused)
Sharp-holder scoring is disabled in US-only mode. The required holder and leaderboard surfaces are not available in the supported US API stack today.
Current behavior
Beacon remains live, but the score is Wall-driven until US holder telemetry is available:
If US holder endpoints become available later, sharp-holder scoring can be reintroduced behind a dedicated US compatibility pass.
Interpretation: When profitable traders are weighted toward YES, it suggests informed money sees value on that side.
Signal Thresholds
The final Beacon score is on a 0-100 scale, with the following interpretation:
High confidence bullish signal from Wall depth imbalance.
Moderate bullish signal. Indicators tilt toward YES but not decisively.
No clear directional bias from orderbook depth.
Moderate bearish signal. Indicators tilt toward NO but not decisively.
High confidence bearish signal from Wall depth imbalance.
Limitations
- 1.Not trading advice. Beacon is an analytical tool, not a recommendation to buy or sell.
- 2.US API scope. Sharp-holder scoring is paused until compatible US holder/leaderboard coverage exists.
- 3.Thin orderbooks. Markets with low liquidity may produce unreliable Wall signals.
- 4.Data delays. Cached data may be up to 30-60 seconds old during volatile periods.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Beacon score?
The Beacon score is a 0-100 metric currently driven by orderbook liquidity analysis (The Wall) for Polymarket US markets. Higher scores indicate stronger YES pressure in the book.
How is The Wall calculated?
The Wall analyzes orderbook depth using logit-based weighting. Orders near the midpoint price receive more weight than those at extreme prices (near 0c or 100c), as they represent more meaningful price discovery.
What is Sharp Money?
Sharp Money is currently paused in US-only mode because the required holder/leaderboard endpoints are not available in the supported US API stack.
How often is the Beacon updated?
Beacon scores are recalculated from orderbook depth when data is refreshed. Orderbook data is cached briefly to balance freshness with API limits.
What do the Beacon signal levels mean?
Strong YES (80+): High confidence bullish signal. Lean YES (60-79): Moderate bullish signal. Neutral (40-59): No clear directional bias. Lean NO (20-39): Moderate bearish signal. Strong NO (<20): High confidence bearish signal.